The geographic footprint of the activities of the Salini Group clearly shows the Group’s international vocation. Specifically, about 88% of the Group’s revenue is generated abroad and about 62% of its order backlog consists of projects outside Italy. Consequently, it is essential and of fundamental importance to proceed with an analysis of economic, social and political conditions in the global market and specifically in the markets where the Group already operates and those where it intends to develop its business, consistent with the guidelines of the 2014-2017 Business Plan.
At the international level, macroeconomic conditions show an improvement compared with the data for the previous year. According to recent estimates published by the OECD, the GDP of the 34 most developed economies should grow by 2.2% in 2014 and 2.8% in 2015. The global economy, however, should expand at a faster rate, growing by 3.4% in 2014 and 3.9% in 2015.
Among the more developed economies, the recovery looks more solid in the United States, where the growth rate could reach 2.6% in 2014 and 3.5% in 2015. In the Eurozone, after three years of contracting consumption and demand, the economy should also expand, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in the United States, growing by 1.2% in 2014 and 1.7% in 2015. Currently, the European macroeconomic situation is not yet fully solid and stable and, consequently, both the individual countries and the European Union collectively will be required to implement targeted and focused programs to ensure a continuation of the expansion trend that resumed last year. The main actions in this area include maintaining an “accommodating” monetary policy, implementing programs to create a greater and comprehensive union at the banking and fiscal level and enacting other reforms to make the E.U. economies more competitive and efficient.
Insofar as the so-called “BRIICS” (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa) are concerned, projections call for growth rates of 5.3% this year and 7.5% in 2015. Among these countries, the most dynamic and strongest expansion is expected in China, with a growth rate at or near 7.5%.
As for inflation, the OECD countries should experience a moderate increase in 2014 and 2015, with rates estimated at 0.8% for 2014 and 1,2% for 2015.
With regard to employment levels, a limited but widespread positive trend is finally beginning to emerge compared with the negative spikes recorded during the crisis; however, in the OECD area, according to estimates, more than 44 million people will be unemployed at the end of 2015—11.5 million people more than in 2007.